Recently at the Invention Pub, we have been talking a lot about ideas that could easily get out of hand if proper considerations are not taken. Nicola Tesla halted much of his work with electricity due to the fear that it would be dangerous or misused if in the wrong hands. Ray Kurzweil painted a vision of the future for us where nanotechnology resides in everything, conquering genetics allow humans to live forever, and robots and humans are indistinguishable. However it is important to remember that Kurzweil is ultimately an optimist and there is another side to the story, this is where Bill Joy comes in.

Bill Joy is best known for his part in founding Sun Microsystems and work with UNIX, but more recently has gained some fame with his opposition to Kurzweil’s idea of unbridled technological advancement. Joy’s major concern is that as our technology improves, the unintended consequences of these technologies become significantly more dangerous. Without proper consideration to all of the potential effects of many new emerging technologies, even projects with the best intentions can have devastating results.

Nanotechnology is a promising emerging technology that is already keeping our clothes wrinkle free, and our surfaces cleaner and brighter. Someday it could help keep our bodies healthy, environment clean, and has potential for a ton of things that have not even been thought of yet. However, what happens when someone makes a mistake with nanotechnology? A company releases a nanotech out to the world, to find out too late that it is dangerous? How does the company recall billions of tiny nanotechs harming everything they touch? What if a self replicating nanotechnology is developed, and then gets out of hand as the little things just keep replicating and never stop? The last scenario is commonly referred to as the Gray Goo theory, and is the most popular argument against nanotechnology.

Genetics is an extremely controversial technology, and seems to get even more controversial as we learn more about it. Unless you have committed to a 100% organic diet, you are probably like me and most likely have eaten genetically modified food today, if not by the end of the day. Scientists have increased the yield that our plants produce, and have enabled them to grow in harsh conditions thanks to genetics. Many people believe that genetically modified plants could solve all the starvation problems around the world. On the other hand, we have recently discovered that genes do not always affect specific traits on a one to one basis. When the human genome project was started it was assumed that we had twice as many genes. This means that modifying one gene to make a plant deal with drought better, or to choose your children’s eye color, it could result in a completely different trait modification. Could playing with genes introduce new disease into our food supply (has this already happened?), or could playing with our genes make us more susceptible to different risks?

Finally we have the science fiction favorite, out of control robots. Kurzweil predicts that computers will be as smart as humans by 2020, and soon after, humans will be so integrated with robots the two will be indistinguishable. What then happens when robots decide they want to improve and determine that it is humans that are holding them back? In 1942 science fiction writer Isaac Asimov proposed the three laws of Robots, including the most important, no robot can harm a human. The question becomes, how many programmers will even bother to take the time to program their robots with these laws? Most people certainly don’t believe they are necessary today, but by the time they realize the laws are, it could already be too late.

A lot of these scenarios make for great movies, but seem a bit far fetched right now. So why is Bill Joy so concerned about these technologies? Just look to where he is devoting all of his energy to now. Joy has become a venture capitalist, investing in green technologies that he thinks can change the world and stop global warming. History has already shown us that we can do a lot of damage with technology. The people who produced the factories, autos and other factors that contribute carbon emissions into our atmosphere had only intended to contribute useful technology to the world. Unfortunately the side effects of all these things went unnoticed for such a long time, we can only hope it is not too late. Bill Joy hopes that we will learn from history and not make the same mistake twice, because the next time we may not be able to fix our predicament.

Despite all the doom and gloom, there is some inspiration in Bill Joy. To end this post I’ve embedded a very short clip of Joy talking a little bit about his search for world changing green technologies.

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 24th, 2008 at 9:40 pm and is filed under Inspired Hops. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.